David Waltham

From Sand Grains to Solar Systems

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Interannual Variability

Of course, climate change is not just the result of changes in greenhouse gasses.  Climate is affected by solar cycles, by El-Nino events, by volcanic eruptions and by many other effects.  KISS includes these by simply assuming that they lead to to random year-to-year fluctuations in global mean temperature.  The model therefore produces a range of possible temperatures in which the minimum predicted temperature in a given year differs from the maximum predicted temperature by the interannual-variability.  Try a value of 1 °C to see what it does to the “Average global temperature” display.  Then adjust the level until the observed temperatures more or less fit into the predicted range.